Hi, you can e-mail me at shotgunbets@gmail.com, in english, spanish or portuguese.
And now I have a chatbox, you can also leave your message there.

* "tamo aí" means something like "here we are" (but I'm just one) in portuguese (Brazil's official and universal land language).

Sao Paulo bouncing back. That's all.

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Hi! I'm back! I was not posting for some reasons among them those crazy drops in odds, I could not see value to post my picks with such drops. My published analysis will be shorter now, just in case any bookie read this (I don't think I'm that important, sure, but why give away all the opinion to such good companies, right?). I will try to post five picks per month. About the game, Avai are in a great moment, all important players are back. Santo Andre introuble after a good start. Captain Fernando won't play.

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Portuguesa -0.5 opened at 1.80, which was interesting by then, but as Brasiliense are doing fine in Serie B so far - they are in 2nd - I thought they could move up, and they did. Let me point out the reasons for taking this. I think Brasilienese, despite this start, will fight for promotion eventually. Portuguesa definetely will. They were relegated last season because of bad defense (problem solved now) and some incredible matches when they completely dominated their opponents, but ended up drawing at home. Portuguesa play a much, and I mean much, stronger regional (State) league (Paulista) than Brasiliense (DF, from which I've never seen market for). And Portuguesa had a good role in that tournament. They lost their chances of qualifing to the semi finals in the very last minutes to Santos. After the Paulista, Portuguesa had Athirson leaving for Cruzeiro. It worried me at first, but they brought good players from Mirassol, like good defending midfielder Acleisson, and left winger Anderson Paim, who's not playing tonight. Coach Bonamigo will transfer good and experienced Cesar Prates from right to left wing, where he'll put Wilton Goiano, who's ok. Another miss is important striker Edno. He has been out for a few rounds now though, and the team is getting by without him. Their only loss was to tough Ponte Preta away. The score was 5-2, but Portuguesa scored 1-0 and 2-1 and it was 2-2 until defender Acleisson got a red card and ruin the team. Christina is still out too. Last match was a great win over Ipatinga away (3-0). A win will put them in the promotion zone again. Brasiliense insist in the strategy that almost costed them a relegation to Serie C last season (they recovered in the last rounds): veterans. Midfeilder Iranildo is still there, and they brought striker Fabio Junior, who once played for Roma when he was 20 (now he´s over 30 and for a long time have not playing for any significant team, in Brazil or abroad). Their wins that took them to the second place were against some of the weakest teams in Serie B, like Campinense. It is true that they played well last game against Bahia (3-0 win at home), but all these does not justify these odds to me. Good value.

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Parana -0.75 opened at 1.97, dropped to below 1.90, and are now above 2.00. No important missings for both sides. Parana started badly, losing to Bahia (2-0 away), then getting a draw at home against Ponte Preta (0-0), and then losing to America (3-1 away). But only this loss to America can be considered a really bad result. Bahia are strong at home (won all their games), and Ponte are a strong candidate to be promoted. These last two rounds though, Parana got a win over favourite-to-be-promoted Vasco (3-1 at home) and 1-0 win over Juventude away, with clear improvement in their football. Ceara are doing a poor campaign (19th 0-2-3). Defense is not reliable, offensive line doesn´t do much either. Another factor to be considered is the temperature. Ceara are in Brazil's northeast, a very hot place the whole year. It's autunm in Brazil and even in winter in Ceara we can have 30 degrees celsius, and almost never below 20 degrees. Parana 's city of Curitiba is the coldest brazilian capital. By the time of the game it can be around 5 degrees, with rain. Ceara players are not used to this kind of weather.

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Last night, when I turned off my computer, odds for Atletico +0.25 were 1.81 and interesting. Now they rose to 2.00 and I went looking for new info, and I discovered that there were no new info - that's just the market disagreeing with me. Avai are back to serie A after 30 years. Atletico are one of the most traditional teams in Brazil, not as strong today as they were in the past, but still stronger than Avai. Atletico were having a good year until they recently lost 0-5 to archirivals Cruzeiro. That was unacceptable to the fans so they changed the coach. This week celso Roth came. He is know for his concerns about defensive play, and is changing tatics from a 4-4-2 to 3-5-2, trying to set free his experienced wings Elder Granja and Junior (World Cup champion in 2002). Plus, striker Diego Tardelli is at his best moment. Talented but indisciplined, he was playing below his potential these last seasons. Now he is one the top scoring players in brazil this year. Avai won't have their key player, experienced midfielder Marquinhos, injured, who played for Sao Paulo, Atletico MG and in Germany among other clubs. Without him to organize, the team lose offensive power.

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A good win tonight will secure the best campaign of all teams in Libertadores for Gremio. That means they will play the worst qualified for the knockout rounds, and will play all the 2nd leg games at home if they keep qualifying. Gremio coceaded just one goal the during whole tournament (best defense), and can end up as the top socring team too. With four wins and one draw (an incredible 0-0 at home against U de Chile at home in the first round when they missed many incredible goals). Boyaca Chico, not impressive, lost to Gremio at home 0-1, and it could have been more - because they also missed some incredible goals, not as many as against la U. Now they came to Brazil with a hard task: without four players, they have to win, and hope that the very weak Aurora at least draw U de Chile at home, to qualify. They've not draw so far in Libertadores. But now Gremio have no troubles, and argentinian Maxi Lopez will be the striker. They also had 2 weeks to train, rest and prepare for this match.

Where did my Guarani - Inter pick from yesterday pick go? I had Inter -0.75 at 2.15 Pinnacle. Inter won 2-1. Maybe it disapperaed with the latest maintenance. I don't know, but I will ask the support what happened. If anyone remember reading it, please help me testifing at the support forum. Thanks.

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Campeonato Carioca is divided in two halfs, whose champions meet at the great final. First half is called Taça Guanabara (Guanabara is the bay where Rio is), won this year by Botafogo. The second one is the currently Taça Rio. From the beggining teams were were separated to form two groups: A and B, none being stronger a priori. Two best go to the semi finals. With just two rounds left, in group B, Macae is in third with 10 points. Flamengo is the first, Botafogo (2nd) and Bangu (4th) also have ten points. Bangu play an early game at home against Tigres and might put even more pressure on Macae. Maracana is no neutral ground at all. It's like home for Vasco and their fans. Macae city is 200 km away from Rio. Vasco are qualified for the TR semi finals and playing the best football now in Rio (6-0-0 in Taça Rio). Macae (3-1-2) still have a chance they know to be actually slim. Vasco without 3 midfielders, Carlos Alberto and Jefferson among them, two very important players. Carlos Alberto was replaced by Enrico against Volta redonda, and he scored twice (Vasco won 5-3 away). Macae will play a 3-6-1, with just Kaike upfront. Three strikers are injured, a defender and a defensive midfielder can't play too. Odds look very nice.

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Campeonato Paulista 16th round

Last year Portuguesa were relegated to Brazil's serie B because of their defense. In this Paulista, their defense have been their solution. Mario Sergio took over in the earlier rounds, and he's known by his concerns about this sector. And he's got good results. Then, after a personal problem with midfielder Fellype Gabriel, which affected the whole team, and he left. Bonamigo came in and kept up the good work, and got four wins in his four games as the team's coach, with four clean sheets. They are in the semi-finals qualifying zone, in the 4th. Getting a place in the semis would be a great accomplishment for Portuguesa. Bonamigo did the smart move of starting with Fellype Gabriel again (he was on the bench and that was the source of the problems he had with Mario Sergio). He is the most skilled and inventive player of the team. Even though Athirson, a experienced defender/midfielder who played for Juventus IT and Brazil NT, and Edno, team's top scorer are the most important ones. Mirassol are in the 8th position, not bad at all for them (they just came to Paulista serie A a few years ago). That didn't stopped them from getting a 5-0 loss to Sao Paulo 3 rounds ago, in a match where took advantage of the high balls to the area, which Portuguesa can do too through their wings to Edno and Christian, both good with their heads.

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Santos will have their striker and best known player Kleber Pereira back. His goal average playing at Vila Belmiro is around 1 per game. Lucio Flavio will start his second match. He was brought from Botafogo to organize the midfield, which was a team's problem, but he had to regain conditioning. Plus, Kleber will have Neymar at his side. This 30 million euro kid is only 17 and this is his only his 4th game as a pro. Real Madrid tried to sign him. We hear from him since he was 14 (there's another Santos' kid, Jean, who's 14 now and we hear from him since he was 9). I've watched Neymar's first 3 games and I have to say: he's truly astonishing. Bold, skilled, with a style very similar to Robinho. Mexico's 70 world champion and football legend Tostao wrote in his column that only few times he was so amazed by a player's talent at first sight. The number 7 Santos shirt is sold out in Santos city. Rio Branco lost the first leg 2-1 and is the the same situation as Vilhena from the pick below.